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Cognitive Biases Planning Fallacy
It'll Be Quick
Five everyday jobs. For each one, tell us how long it would take you to finish it, start to done. Be honest with your gut.
1Read the task and picture yourself doing it.
2Enter how long you think it will take you.
3After all five, meet the time it usually really takes.
The concept· Kahneman & Tversky, 1979
Planning Fallacy
The planning fallacy is our tendency to systematically underestimate how long our own tasks will take, even when we know that similar tasks have run long before.
It blows software deadlines, home renovations, and government megaprojects, and on a small scale it makes us cram far too much into a single day.